Architecture Billings Improve Slightly, But Demand Remains Low

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Source: CUSTOM HOME Magazine
Publication date: November 30, 2009

By Stephani L. Miller

The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reports that in October 2009 the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) reached its highest rating since August 2008. The ABI was 46.1 in October, a three-point increase over the previous month. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings, so while the ABI has improved, it still indicates overall low demand for design services. Inquiries for new projects have dropped slightly from September's score of 59.1, scoring 58.5 in October.

According to AIA's chief economist, Kermit Baker, Ph.D., Hon. AIA, the increased billings may be an early sign of a recovery in the design and construction industry, but this improvement could simply be a brief aberration. "Because we continue to get reports of architecture firms struggling in a competitive marketplace with a continued decline in commercial property values, it is far too early to think we are out of the woods," Baker said in an announcement about the October ABI.

The figures in the latest New Residential Construction report released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development appear to support Baker's caution that a recovery period has not yet arrived.

After peaking in July 2009, single-family housing permits and starts, as well as starts and permits for units in buildings with five or more units, continued their downward trend, according to the October Census report. Overall, permits for privately owned housing units declined in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 552,000—4 percent below September's rate. Single-family permits dipped 0.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 529,000. Previously, September saw a three-percent decline in single-family permits from the previous month. Even more dramatic, starts for privately owned housing units in October dropped nearly 11 percent below September's figures. Starts of single-family units fell 6.8 percent to 476,000, down from September's rate of 511,000, while starts of units in buildings of five or more units dropped to 48,000 from 78,000 in September.

Read more analysis of the latest housing data from Barrons.